Al Dente Menu Prices: Understanding the Factors Behind the Fluctuations

The global durum wheat market has been experiencing unprecedented fluctuations in prices, with a significant increase of up to +65% for international products and +100% for national products since July 2021. The situation is attributed to a combination of factors that have impacted production levels and yields.

In early 2021, international durum wheat stocks were at an all-time low, following record consumption in the pandemic year. EU production remained substantially stable, with estimates suggesting 7.8 million tons (Mton) in 2021 compared to 7.7 Mton in 2020. However, Canadian and US productions took a hit due to adverse weather conditions, resulting in significant downturns.

Canada's durum wheat production fell by 59.6% to 2.654 Mton in 2021 compared to the previous year's 6.5 Mton. The United States also saw a decline, with production dropping to 0.9 Mton in 2021 from 1.8 Mton in 2020.

The poor weather conditions affected cultivable areas, leading to reduced yields and lower production levels. As a result, prices have been subject to strong inflationary pressures, with international durum wheat products exceeding 550 €/tonne (source Italmopa Set 2021) and national products reaching 540 €/tonne.

The factors driving the price increase in 2021 include a combination of global events and market conditions. According to industry experts, the fluctuations are largely attributed to the turmoil experienced by both international and Italian durum wheat markets over the past 12 months.

As consumers and businesses navigate these uncertain times, understanding the drivers behind the fluctuating prices is crucial for making informed decisions. By recognizing the impact of production levels, weather conditions, and market trends, we can better anticipate and adapt to the changing durum wheat landscape.

Al dente menu prices